Outline

Outline

Where did all the workers go? Mostly they were never born

Michigan

All 20-24

760,000

740,000

720,000

700,000

680,000

660,000

640,000

620,000

600,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Source: Census and Isely Calculations

Not A lot of Workers to Come Back

Why People are Not Working In Michigan

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%

Roughly

50% Retired 13% Disabled

1% Concerned about COVID

December 2020

July 2021

December 2021

July 2022

December 2022

Childcare Eldercare Do not want

Source: Census Pulse Survey

Wages are affected by Demographic Change

Demographics have Affected Wages

Wage Growth By Income Quartile

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

Percent YOY Increase

1

0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

1st

2nd 3rd 4th

Source: Atlanta Fed

Automation Starts to Make Sense

This is a comparison of ROI for using a Robot to Bus Tables – It is a highly risky bet using 2018 wages.. But nearly a sure bet using 2023 wages

ROI Using 2018 Wages

ROI Using 2023 Wages

First Year

64%

113% 208% 288% 357%

First Two Years First Three Years First Four Years

117% 162% 201%

The US/Michigan/West Michigan are all Ageing

Data Primarily From These Counties

Ageing Workforce

Worker Ages

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Age 29 or younger

Age 30 to 54

Age 55 or older

2002 2019

Source: On The Map

Kent County is Different – But This Will Change

Percent of Population in Selected Age Groups

10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

Kent

Ottawa

Wyane

Michigan

US

In 30's Over 65

Source: Census

Race and Ethnicity Changing Quickly

The Pipeline for New Workers

Change from Previous Year 15-25 Year Olds

-3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

White Black and African American Hispanic

Source: ACS and Author Calculations

Worker Demographics in Kent County

Kent County Distribution of Workers

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Percent

White

Black/African American

Hispanic

Female

27.5% under 29 21.5% over 55

<29 30-54 >55

Source: On the Map

Changing Demographics of Kent County

Percent of the Prime Working Age Population (25-60)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

White

Black/African American

Hispanic

2019 2029

Source: ACS and Author Calculations

Overall Population Growth Not Fast Enough

Population Growth Not Fast Enough

Working Age Population vs Employed 2014-2019

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

Working Age Population Employed

Source: Census and BLS