Outline
Outline
Where did all the workers go? Mostly they were never born
Michigan
All 20-24
760,000
740,000
720,000
700,000
680,000
660,000
640,000
620,000
600,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Source: Census and Isely Calculations
Not A lot of Workers to Come Back
Why People are Not Working In Michigan
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%
Roughly
50% Retired 13% Disabled
1% Concerned about COVID
December 2020
July 2021
December 2021
July 2022
December 2022
Childcare Eldercare Do not want
Source: Census Pulse Survey
Wages are affected by Demographic Change
Demographics have Affected Wages
Wage Growth By Income Quartile
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
Percent YOY Increase
1
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
1st
2nd 3rd 4th
Source: Atlanta Fed
Automation Starts to Make Sense
This is a comparison of ROI for using a Robot to Bus Tables – It is a highly risky bet using 2018 wages.. But nearly a sure bet using 2023 wages
ROI Using 2018 Wages
ROI Using 2023 Wages
First Year
64%
113% 208% 288% 357%
First Two Years First Three Years First Four Years
117% 162% 201%
The US/Michigan/West Michigan are all Ageing
Data Primarily From These Counties
Ageing Workforce
Worker Ages
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Age 29 or younger
Age 30 to 54
Age 55 or older
2002 2019
Source: On The Map
Kent County is Different – But This Will Change
Percent of Population in Selected Age Groups
10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
Kent
Ottawa
Wyane
Michigan
US
In 30's Over 65
Source: Census
Race and Ethnicity Changing Quickly
The Pipeline for New Workers
Change from Previous Year 15-25 Year Olds
-3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
White Black and African American Hispanic
Source: ACS and Author Calculations
Worker Demographics in Kent County
Kent County Distribution of Workers
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Percent
White
Black/African American
Hispanic
Female
27.5% under 29 21.5% over 55
<29 30-54 >55
Source: On the Map
Changing Demographics of Kent County
Percent of the Prime Working Age Population (25-60)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
White
Black/African American
Hispanic
2019 2029
Source: ACS and Author Calculations
Overall Population Growth Not Fast Enough
Population Growth Not Fast Enough
Working Age Population vs Employed 2014-2019
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Working Age Population Employed
Source: Census and BLS
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